For a long time, the Ukrainian counter-offensive seemed to be stuck in the mud, barely moving on the front lines. But now, Ukraine has achieved a breakthrough along the crucial southern front near Zaporizhzhia. As reported by the Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Hanna Malyar, the armed forces of Ukraine broke through the first line of defense of the Russian forces, and now the counter-offensive continues around Melitopol.
“Our armed forces achieved success near Novodanylivka and Novoprokopivka,” Malyar said. Both are villages in Zaporizhzhia oblast. In addition, Kyiv is said to have retaken three square kilometers (1.9 square miles) near the eastern Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, which has seen heavy fighting.
The counteroffensive in Ukraine began in June 2023. Kyiv’s goal is to liberate its territories in the Zaporizhzhia, Dontesk, Luhansk, and Kherson regions, parts of which are occupied by Russian forces. Ukraine is also seeking to regain the Crimean peninsula, located between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014.
Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of the Zaporizhzhia region, told the British Sunday newspaper The Observer that troops are currently located between the first and second lines of Russian defenses in southern Ukraine. In the past few days, there have been reports that Ukrainian armed forces are advancing near the village of Robotyne. Currently, Russian troops are trying to regain the lost territories with a series of counter-offensives.
Why is progress so difficult?
Initially, a breakthrough was expected earlier. But the Ukrainian counteroffensive has long been blocked by a large minefield, making it difficult for troops to advance, or to evacuate the wounded, as Tarnavskyi explained.
Rescuers are also reported to have come under heavy fire while crossing the mine. Australian military analyst Allan Orr believes that NATO is not adequately equipping and training forces in Ukraine, as he told the US weekly news magazine Newsweek.
Why is success successful despite the difficulties?
This may be partly due to the state of the Russian forces. Russian battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky said his troops suffered “extreme physical and psychological stress” while defending the southeastern regions. Quoting Khodakovsky’s statement, Sunday’s report said of the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) therefore concluded that the situation worsened fur Russia.
The ISW report goes on to say that Russian soldiers are under constant Ukrainian artillery fire, and that Khodakovsky is unsure “if the exhausted and exhausted Russian forces will be able to defend against an upcoming Ukrainian offensive.” front sector.”
What to do with the collapse?
Experts believe that the collapse is actually a positive step for Ukrainian forces. According to Tarnavskyi, the Russian forces dedicate about 60% of their time and resources to the first line of defense.
In contrast, only about 20% of available resources are dedicated to the second and third lines of defense. This is why the ISW also estimates that Ukrainian forces are making improvements, while Russian troops are in deteriorating conditions.
Military expert Marcus Keupp speaks on the German daily news show ZDF today that the current moves are not about making a spectacular military collapse like in the movies, but about finding a gap in Russia’s defenses.
This gap should be “about five to 10 kilometers wide, in order [for Ukrainian troops] to push heavy equipment, or reserves, through.” Keupp believes Ukrainian forces are in thr process of finding this gap. “Therefore, this is a very dangerous moment for Russian forces.”
What’s next?
Tarnavskyi says Ukrainian forces are pushing forward towards the Russian-occupied towns of Tokmak and Melitopol near the Sea of Azov. There are no reports yet on how much territory has been recovered. Ukraine’s goal is to continue to the Sea of Azov, 90 kilometers to the south, to isolate Russian troops.
Keupp said ZDF today the city of Tokmak is very important because many important highways and an important railroad pass through the area. That means Russian logistics can be cut off “pretty well” from that location, Keupp said. This made Tokmak “a kind of guard post” for the territory stretching towards the Black Sea.
If Ukraine reaches the Black Sea coast and is able to burn Crimea, Keupp believes that the war will be strategically lost for Russia.
A podcast in German every week tight, Security expert Christian Mölling said Ukraine has about two months left before bad weather makes larger moves impossible. But there is much to be gained, he said, if Ukraine is able to put a wedge in the south “so that the whole land stretching to the Sea of Azov can be held under the artillery.” This will slow down the supply of Russian troops.
This article was written in German, with support from various news agencies.
