CNN
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Donald Trump may have just put Ukraine on the clock.
The former president’s refusal to say whether he wants President Volodymyr Zelensky to win the war after Russia’s unprovoked invasion — along with his foolish claim that he could end the conflict in 24 hours — has exacerbated the hope that the fate of Ukraine will remain in the hands of US voters next year.
The Republican frontrunner’s comments, at a CNN town hall meeting in New Hampshire, are the latest sign that the politics of war in the US will become more intense as the 2024 campaign progresses. which creates new pressure on Zelensky’s upcoming offensive to deliver a decisive. wind of the second year of the conflict.
The prospect of Trump’s return to office could also provide an incentive for Russian President Vladimir Putin to prolong a war that has exacted a terrible civilian toll and raised many Russian casualties in the hope that he will take advantage of any reduction in the multi-billion dollar US. aid flow to Ukraine.
And Trump’s decision to insert himself into the debate reflects deepening political calculations for several key players in the war. That includes President Joe Biden, who staked his legacy as a defender of democratic principles in the US and abroad on Ukraine’s survival, and Putin, who led a scaled-down Victory Day parade in Moscow today. week after he failed in his war objective to crush the sovereignty of Ukraine.
Developments on the battlefield could dictate the course of the war ahead of the November 2024 elections. And making vague judgments about any comments made by the former president is dangerous, because he often lives day-to-day and minute-by-minute rather than following a months-long strategic plan.
However, Trump’s reluctance to call Putin a war criminal despite evidence of Russian atrocities in Ukraine and an International Criminal Court warrant for his arrest has renewed intrigue among those the former president’s motive for repeatedly genuflecting to the powerful Kremlin.
Despite Trump’s personal and political motivations for making a campaign issue out of Ukraine, and his capacity to politicize the multi-billion dollar lifeline of US arms and ammunition for the government’s Zelensky should not be underestimated. In New Hampshire, Trump showed that he sees war as a perfect vehicle for his populist nationalism, claiming that the rest of the world is destroying the US and that Biden is more concerned with protecting the security of those foreign rather than American economic needs. .
This message could be even more powerful if any recession next year hurts Biden’s reelection bid. It is also unclear whether Biden wants to enter the critical months of his campaign still sending billions of dollars to Ukraine despite promoting his leadership in the West as a major foreign policy success.
For now, the prospect of Trump’s return to office is a long-term concern for Ukraine, as it fights to expel Russian forces from its territory in a long-awaited counterattack and relies on Biden’s strong support has reinvigorated the Western alliance to support it. After all, the next election is 18 months away and Trump may not win the GOP nomination or the presidential contest. Some recent polls have noted softening support for a prominent US role in supporting Ukraine – especially among Republicans – a factor that Trump is trying to exploit, despite the GOP’s support for Ukraine in Congress has remained strong despite high-profile anti-Zelensky rhetoric from some of his closest allies on Capitol Hill.
For Trump, the whole Ukraine question boils down to a dollars and cents equation — just as he viewed NATO while in office as little more than an international protection racket.
“We’re providing a lot of equipment, we don’t have ammunition for ourselves right now,” the former president said at a CNN town hall. And, he added, “we don’t have the ammunition for ourselves that we’re giving too much away” – comments that tap into a seam of isolationism in the modern-day Republican Party.
When CNN anchor Kaitlan Collins asked him if he believed Putin should be tried for alleged war crimes, Trump replied: “I’ll say this: I want Europe to put more money .” That comment was similar to one of the most enduring punch lines of his 2016 campaign in which he accused US allies, such as those in Europe and Asia, of enriching themselves under the US defense umbrella.
On the one hand, Trump’s comments are a mockery of generations of US foreign policy orthodoxy based on the idea that making the world safe for democracy and standing up to tyrants is in the core political interest, US diplomatic and commercial and an American power multiplier.
Yet his threats to US allies, especially in Europe, while sending shock waves through the transatlantic alliance, resulted in some European powers increasing their own defense spending to NATO’s recommended 2% of GDP threshold for member states. However it is sometimes difficult to distinguish between the Trump effect and more European defense spending due to growing concerns about Russia – even before the invasion of Ukraine.
But Trump is also right that the US has spent more on defense in Ukraine than the EU – a powerful economy – which is geographically closer to the war zone than the United States. The Biden administration has committed a total of $36.9 billion in military aid to Ukraine since the start of the war in an extraordinary effort that effectively makes it a de-facto client of NATO and effectively thwarts one of the goals of Putin’s war to keep Kyiv from the West. orbit.
European Union institutions have pledged about 3.6 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine, but individual member states have provided more than 10 billion euros in combined contributions, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Britain – no longer a member of the EU – has also sent more than 6 billion euros worth of aid and, as CNN’s Jim Sciutto exclusively reported on Thursday, delivered “Storm Shadow” cruise missiles to Zelensky’s forces on the left the upcoming offensive. (One dollar is now equal to 0.91 euros.)
Like the United States, Europe has also offered tens of billions of dollars in other types of aid, grants and loan guarantees to Ukraine but Washington remains the leading donor. Trump’s transactional view of the Western alliance reflects his very narrow view of US security interests and foreign policy, which has not changed since his first term in office, when he cut US financial contributions to NATO.
It also ignores how the joint US-European partnership rooted in American military might has not only kept the peace in Europe for almost 80 years but made the Western bloc the most prosperous and democratic political experiment in history. . His first administration transformed the US from a guarantor of global stability into a major disruptive force — and he is already signaling a second one that will deliver more of the same.
But his complaints about European defense spending got support from an unlikely source on Thursday: EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell.
“I’m not a fan of President Trump, but I think he’s right about one thing – Europeans are not sharing their share of the burden,” Borrell said in Brussels on Thursday.
However, Ukraine should probably worry that if Trump returns to power he will be happy to erase Biden’s legacy, the same way he pulled out of the Paris climate agreement and scrapped the Iran nuclear deal – centers in the diplomatic Obama administration.
And the former president may harbor a particular grudge against Zelensky after he tried to inform the Ukrainian president of a corruption investigation against Biden before the 2020 election that led to his first impeachment.
Republican New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, a frequent Trump critic and potential 2024 presidential candidate, described Trump’s town hall performance as “weak,” “wimpy” and lacking in leadership. appearance on “Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer.”
“Ukraine has to win the war,” Sununu said, adding that the U.S. has no better chance to “put our foot in that Russian tin army.”
Trump’s former defense secretary, Mark Esper, told CNN’s “This Morning” on Thursday that Trump’s comments sent the “wrong message” especially because they could suggest to China that it might wait for determination of the US and its allies to prevent any invasion. in Taiwan.
America’s friends abroad but emphasized Thursday that for now at least, Trump’s intentions for Ukraine are hypothetical.
Zelensky himself rejected Trump’s comments in an interview with European public broadcasters.
“Who knows where we are [when the election happens]?” he said, according to the BBC. “I think we’re going to win.”
And British Defense Secretary of State for Defense Ben Wallace said in the House of Commons on Thursday that he is confident that the American people will support Ukraine no matter who is in the White House.
“The President of the United States today is President Biden. I have a good relationship with him, as well as the Government,” said Wallace. “I know that the decent and good people of America will recognize that their rights are as important to the people of Ukraine. Their Constitution promotes rights. I think that’s what brings them together, and I’m confident that whoever the next president is will continue to support the fight to uphold human rights.
But this week was the clearest reminder that Trump, who last year called for “ending” the Constitution, may not share those values.
