Istanbul, Turkey – As Turks prepare to go to the polls for a presidential run-off, millions of Syrian refugees in the country are watching anxiously, unsure of how the outcome could shape their future.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu will face off on Sunday in a second round of voting after failing to get a majority in the first on May 14. Erdogan won with 49.5 percent and Kilicdaroglu 44.9 percent.
Immigration became a central issue in the election. The campaign saw many opposition politicians vow to deport refugees and migrants as the government highlighted its plans to resume so-called “voluntary” repatriations of Syrians.
According to the United Nations, Turkey has taken in 3.7 million refugees, more than any other country in the world. In the year leading up to the polls, pressure grew on refugees and migrants, especially Syrians, during an economic crisis with rising inflation, a surging lira and a rising cost of living.
The situation has left many Syrians in Turkey deeply concerned about their future in the country.
“I don’t know what will happen after the election,” said Habib, 23, whose name has been changed to protect his identity.
“They are [politicians] saying they want to send all Syrians back. We all suffer from anxiety at this time,” said the man who was displaced eight years ago by the war in Syria and now lives in Istanbul.
Rising nationalism
According to the United Nations refugee agency, the majority of refugees in Turkey – 3.6 million – are Syrians living under “temporary protection status”. About 200,000 Syrians have been granted Turkish citizenship since the outbreak of war in Syria in 2011, according to government figures.
While Turkey initially welcomed refugees, providing shelter and access to education with billions of euros in European Union funding, anti-refugee sentiment has grown in recent years, and the refugees have become the scapegoats of Turkey’s economy, which has sometimes led to violence.
Muhammad Siddik Yasar, who runs the Tarlabaşı Solidarity Association, a refugee solidarity group in Istanbul, said anti-refugee sentiment had been sharpened in the run-up to the election.
“Being a refugee means you are here today, but you have no guarantee for tomorrow,” he told Al Jazeera.
“People are asking us what to do. They are afraid that racism will increase after the election. I have worked with refugees for many years, and I have never seen anything like this year,” he said.
Rising anti-refugee sentiment showed itself at the ballot box in the first round of elections as nationalists put in a strong showing, especially far-right nationalist presidential candidate Sinan Ogan, who won the an unexpected 5.2 percent of the vote.
Ogan ran as a candidate for the ATA (Ancestral) Alliance, led by the anti-migrant, ultranationalist Victory Party. Since then, he has endorsed Erdogan.
“Ogan is an interesting and important political event in Turkey,” said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
“He rallied on a single-issue, anti-refugee, anti-immigrant platform. With no media access, no rallies and no money basically, he got 5 percent,” said Cagaptay.
Since the first round, Kilicdaroglu, supported by a broad coalition of opposition parties, has doubled down on his position on deportations.
“Erdogan, you are not protecting our country’s borders and honor,” he said last week. “When I come to power, I will send all the refugees home.”
‘Voluntary repatriation’
Facing opposition attacks on immigration, the government continued talks with Damascus in what appeared to be warming relations.
This month, the foreign ministers of Turkey, Syria and Iran met in Moscow as part of the Kremlin’s efforts to broker a rapprochement between the Turkish and Syrian governments after years of antagonism over the Syrian war. and several Turkish military operations in northern Syria.
For his part, al-Assad demanded that Turkey withdraw from the territories it controls in northwestern Syria.
The talks were held as several regional leaders moved to normalize relations with al-Assad. In mid-May, Syria was readmitted to the Arab League after its membership had been suspended for more than a decade.
Kilicdaroglu says he seeks to restore relations with al-Assad while Erdogan previously said he would meet with al-Assad for talks.
Aside from steps toward a potential reconciliation, Erdogan’s government is pushing ahead with its plan for refugees to “voluntarily settle” in areas of Syria under Turkish security control.
“We have built over 100,000 houses for [refugees] in northern Syria,” Erdogan said this month at a youth meeting of his Justice and Development Party (AK Party). “Slowly, Syrian refugees are starting to live in these shelters.”
“There is no time limit on this issue,” Erdogan added. “We are giving our best to support and help them in this regard.”
According to Turkey’s interior ministry, nearly 58,000 Syrians returned to their country from November 2021 to October last year.
In a 2022 report, Human Rights Watch documented hundreds of deportations from February to July last year, which the government said were voluntary departures.
Many Syrians are wary about the prospect of returning to their homeland as the war there continues. Habib said he feared being drafted into the army if he returned to Syria.
“If I am transferred to Bashar [al-Assad]I am in a critical condition, and my family has no one to support them,” he said.
Salim Cevik, a researcher at the Center for Applied Turkey Studies at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said that “there is no easy and quick solution to the migration issue in Turkey”.
“There is no return policy possible anytime soon,” he said. “A more realistic policy would probably find ways to integrate them into Turkish society. But this is something that no politician can say publicly.
