Turkey agreed on Monday to clear the way for Sweden to join NATO, a sudden change that allows the alliance to show an image of unity and expansion on the eve of a critical summit intended to prepare for what could be a long war to repel the Russian invasion. in Ukraine.
Sweden’s imminent involvement is a victory for Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary general since 2014, who agreed last week to stay on for a year to help lead a war effort in which NATO is a noncombatant, but a critical supplier of weapons and training. This follows intense pressure on the president of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, especially from President Biden, who called the Turkish leader while en route to Europe on Sunday.
Mr. Biden, just hours after landing in Lithuania before the opening of the summit Tuesday morning, celebrated the moment, saying in a statement that he is “ready to work with President Erdogan and Turkey to develop defense and deterrence in the Euro-Atlantic area.”
The statement was widely interpreted as a sign that the United States will sell Turkey the F-16 fighters and other armaments it has requested. And the decision of Mr. Erdogan came just hours after he said the European Union must first advance his country’s bid to join the EU bloc before he clears the way for NATO.
American officials did not provide details on Monday.
The change in Turkey’s objections will make Mr. Biden’s time at the summit much easier, without a major problem from the agenda, and he will be able to say that Vladimir V. Putin in Russia got exactly what it did not want: an expanded, more. ruled the NATO alliance which now also includes Finland.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a shock to Finland and Sweden, which have long histories of military non-alignment, pushing both countries to seek NATO membership, which they do not want to do. But membership of the European Union alone is not enough security, the two countries decided.
Their membership essentially turns the Baltic Sea into a NATO-dominated waterway, one that enhances NATO’s ability to protect its most vulnerable members: the Baltic countries. That includes the summit site, Lithuania, which borders Russia and Belarus.
Analysts say that Mr. Erdogan is not so much about his change of heart than it is a decision that he got his political brinkmanship as he expected.
If he pushes it, he probably won’t get much more, but his standing among NATO allies could be jeopardized. Turkey has been scrutinized by Western powers for Mr. Erdogan with Mr. Putin and for Turkey’s suspected role in helping Russian companies evade sanctions.
Continuing the Swedish blockade could strengthen doubts about Turkey’s loyalty to the alliance.
“For geopolitical, defense and broader economic considerations, it is in Turkey’s interest to allow Sweden to go through the summit, especially because not doing so will make it very difficult for Erdogan on the other side of the summit” said Emre Peker, the European director of Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy.
Mr. Biden, who arrived in Vilnius on Monday night from London, should still try to find some agreed language on Ukraine’s future relationship with the alliance. Negotiations with the allies continued late Monday night with no clear resolution.
Talks about how to satisfy Ukraine’s demands for entry underscored how the NATO alliance that Mr. Biden celebrates has become increasingly difficult to maintain as the war drags on.
The alliance operates by consensus, much to the chagrin of its larger members, who supply most of the budget and heavy firepower. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has spent the past week hopping between NATO capitals to garner support, has threatened to skip the event if members do not make significant progress in creating a tin- well commitment to how, and when, it will fold into the alliance of the West.
Mr. Zelensky attended a series of meetings critical of continuing Russian aid to the fight, so if he misses it, it could be seen as evidence of a breach.
In an interview broadcast by CNN on Sunday, Mr. Biden said of Ukraine, “I don’t think it’s ready for NATO membership.” He then acknowledged a long-standing, deeper fear: that claiming Ukraine now, given NATO’s commitment to collective defense, would ensure that “we are at war with Russia.”
That’s an argument the president has been making for 15 months.
Germany agreed with Mr. Biden, but many former Soviet bloc countries now in NATO disagreed, saying Ukraine would bring one of Europe’s strongest and most battle-tested nations into the alliance. and that it should enter now or as soon as there is a cease-fire.
All this would have been difficult to tackle in a two-day summit. But it’s complicated by the fact that NATO’s expansion is happening at the very moment when European leaders are trying to sell their publics on turning the alliance into what it once was: a real fighting force that trains and patrols. to prevent Moscow.
The membership disputes could be overshadowed by new concerns that a long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive has broken down, and that Kyiv could run out of ammunition – one of several scenarios that American intelligence officials have said that Mr. Putin is thinking of making the downgrade a victory.
Mr. Biden authorized the shipment of cluster munitions, controversial within the alliance, to fill the gap until more shells could be produced for the Ukrainian artillery — and, although he did not say it, to better would destroy the Russians in their deeply dug trenches. .
Mr. Biden and his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, both made the case that US allies would go along with the decision, even those that signed the 15-year-old Convention on Cluster Munitions, which bans the production, sale or use . of weapons. The concern is that ammunition creates a post-conflict hazard like land mines. The “duds” scattered around the battlefield can explode years later, usually when children pick them up.
The issue of what exactly Ukraine will promise is the most vexing question at the summit.
The final communiqué is expected to say that “Ukraine’s rightful place is in the NATO alliance,” NATO-nation officials said, but there is debate about whether to add, “if the conditions allow” or whether to elaborate some of the conditions. But beyond the phrase, how Ukraine will get there, and through what process, remains in dispute.
Ukraine and its Central European allies, especially those bordering Russia, have said they want Ukraine to become a member immediately once the fighting stops.
The United States, Germany, the Netherlands and other countries have rejected that approach. They insisted that Ukraine must undertake other reforms in its political, financial and judicial systems to qualify for membership. What is important now, they say, is practical help in the medium term – which will commit to supporting Ukraine militarily and financially through the American presidential election and beyond.
Mr. Biden said last month that there are “no shortcuts” for Ukraine to join NATO, even after the war.
Regardless of how the words are made, NATO officials say that another important element of the summit is a demonstration of practical support for Ukraine. Mr. Putin, many NATO leaders argue, believes that Europe’s commitment will flag – and that, combined with a ammunition advantage, will ultimately lead to the defeat of Ukraine.
So the next two days will be filled with pledges, organized under a general pledge issued by some countries – perhaps the Group of 7, or a smaller group known as the Quad ( the United States, Britain, Germany and France) – where other countries will sign, said the diplomats of NATO-countries. The hope is to issue such a document of promises in Vilnius.
The document is intended to give Ukraine serious security commitments for the long term, even if it falls short of the security guarantee of full NATO membership. That means providing modern weapons and training that will ensure Ukraine is so well armed that Russia will never try to invade it in the future.
Camille Grand, a former senior NATO official now with the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the challenge is to avoid “just repeating the vague promises of the past. We have to resist the idea that if you there is a frozen conflict, you are not welcome.”
There is another major, if symbolic, move: Ukraine’s relationship with NATO will be upgraded to “council status,” which means that on important issues, Ukraine will be able to sit with the 31 member states as a fair, without Hungary, for example , able to block its participation. Russia once held that status until it annexed Crimea; Giving it to Ukraine is a clear message to Mr. Putin.
The summit will also approve a new defense spending pledge for the alliance, to replace the one agreed in 2014, which aims for allies to spend 2 percent of gross domestic product on the military, including 20 percent of that of equipment. The latest figures show that only 11 out of 31 members have achieved that goal.
However, NATO does not have the means to enforce the demands.
Also, and perhaps as important as anything else, the allies will give political approval to the first detailed war plans on how to defend all NATO territory since the end of the Cold War. Those plans, designed by Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the American commander of the allied forces in Europe, covers more than 4,000 pages and tells the countries in specific terms what they need to protect themselves and their allies.
