It’s hard to understate how close the US is to hitting the debt ceiling.
There are talks – again. But there is no agreement. No bill. Nowhere near as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen repeated on NBC that the “hard” deadline is June 1. Yellen added that the government will have difficulty paying its bills beyond June 15 if Congress does not act.
So how can the sides avoid an epic debt ceiling collision?
At least one Republican lawmaker Fox spoke to suggested that the government is rushing cruise control toward the debt limit — and that Congress has passed the point of no return in a crisis.
DEBT STORIES IN WHITE HOUSE SPEECH, GOP: GOP NEGOTIATOR ‘NOT PRODUCTIVE’
Representative Hakeem Jeffries, a Democrat from New York, center, speaks to members of the media with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat from New York, center left, after a meeting with President Biden at the White House in Washington, DC, US , on Tuesday, May 16, 2023. Republicans are hardening their battle lines ahead of the crucial meeting at the White House to avoid the first US default, the latest sign of trouble in the debt limit negotiations. (Ting Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“There is too much to do and too little time if the date is June 1,” said the legislator who asked not to be identified. “No.”
How President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., bridge this chasm is unclear. Observers noted that negotiations as intense should have started even in April – with the expectation that the sides will hit hiccups like last Friday. That standoff cost the sides nearly three days of talks. And anyone who has seen negotiations like this knows that speedbumps are inevitable.
It is possible that there are many more. So maybe they don’t have enough time to finish it.
In other words:
Let’s say there is the a Tuesday deal. It will likely take until Thursday to formulate the legislative text. McCarthy insisted he would follow the “72 hour rule” in the House. That allows Members to study and consider the bill. This also means that the House may not debate and vote on the bill until next week.
Therefore, the Senate may not take up the legislation until Monday, May 29 – Memorial Day. Even if the Senate is really humming along, it could take until Wednesday, May 31st to get things done. But more likely, June 1 or 2.
And remember, this is the timeline when everyone goes swimming.
THE DEBT CEILING CRYSTAL BALL
But what we leave out of this analysis are the potential contours of a deal – what it would take to get the votes to pass such a package.
We are here.
It’s about math.
Mixing the cocktail of Republican and Democratic votes to pass a theoretical bill through the House (and the Senate – we’ll get to that at some point) involves very precise, but mysterious political alchemy. House Republicans have long talked about wanting a “supermajority” in favor of any future package. That concept goes back decades to House Republicans. But this is 2023. Plus, McCarthy endured the longest Speaker race since 1859 to get the job.
President Biden speaks to the press after meeting with US Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell at the White House in Washington, DC, on May 9, 2023. (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
How could McCarthy agree to any deal without nearly 200 of the 222 House Republicans in favor of it?
It’s likely that anywhere from 20 to 40 House Republicans will be hard noes on any bill that doesn’t replicate the debt ceiling bill that was muscled out last month.
Fox was told McCarthy’s floor was 180 GOP yes. An informed source told Fox that anything south of 180 could mean a conservative Republican files a motion to “abandon the seat” and force a vote for Speaker in the middle. -half of Congress.
This is the constant concern of the Speaker. Will he accept a deal that could put his own political career in jeopardy? Or, is there a way to paint it so that everyone believes they have won?
HOUSE DEMOCRATS LAUNCHE ‘HAIL MARY’ ATTEMPT TO AROUND SPEAKER MCCARTHY AND RAISE DEBT LIMIT
It begs the question of which coalition of House Democrats would support a plan? How many Democrats can House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, DN.Y., afford to lose? However, this conversation is not really about Jeffries. This is about President Biden. The President faced liberal Members who demanded that he simply invoke the “14th Amendment” (which states that federal public debts are not discussed) and end the argument. Progressives are skeptical of President Biden’s waiver — especially on housing spending and work requirements for those receiving welfare benefits.
Who is really willing to walk the plank to do this or be true to their principles?
Here’s another challenge for McCarthy: the House debt ceiling bill could pose a problem in negotiations.
President Biden has stalled negotiations until the House approves his bill — albeit one that gets zero Democratic votes and has no chance of overcoming a filibuster in the Democratic-controlled Senate.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., spoke to reporters after the House Republican majority came close to passing a massive debt ceiling package as they tried to push President Joe Biden into the federal spending negotiations, at the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, April 26, 2023. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
However, there is one thing worth noting about the House GOP’s debt ceiling bill. The passage of the measure was McCarthy’s biggest achievement since holding the Speaker’s chair. He will have little standing in these negotiations if the House does not approve the Republican package. But passing that measure would also box McCarthy.
Fox was told that more and more House Republicans are refusing to drop that bill. McCarthy pushed lawmakers so hard to agree to that package that many were reluctant to accept anything short of that measure.
Additionally, McCarthy is not former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. Pelosi always designed the legislation to get the necessary matrix of votes. A senior House Republican told Fox last week that McCarthy is more “big picture” and hands-off. He wanted the membership to reach a consensus first. He deferred to them.
That can work internally. But a deal on the debt ceiling must be something that President Biden and at least some Democrats can accept. Otherwise, it’s just a Republican debate.
This brings us to the quintessence of “the mathematics.” The vote count surrounding the House GOP’s debt ceiling bill in April is central. How many Republicans are married to that bill? How much would go for something less than that fee? That will dictate where this debate goes in the coming days.
Now, let’s go back to timing.
The casual observer might think that lawmakers are all holed up in Washington until they find a solution. That is not the case. Few are in DC for the weekend. The House of Representatives is in session this week – but is scheduled for a recess next week. So what happens when it comes to the weekend and there is no legislative traffic on the debt ceiling? Do the Republicans keep the House in session or do they cut everything until there is something to vote on?
It splits in two ways.
Congressional leaders may apply “Stockholm Syndrome” tactics to convince members to vote yes. In other words, hold everyone “captive” in Washington until they come and vote yes. But that could mean burning part of the House recess — not to mention the various Memorial Day events lawmakers want to attend in the house.
It is generally thought that keeping everything in DC helps the leaders. This makes it easy to count and track where the votes are. However, Fox has been told that holding everything back in Washington could spark dissent if some Republicans don’t like the plan that McCarthy ultimately cobbled together with Mr. Biden.
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A sure way to notice Members and make them more angry? Keep everyone here for a holiday weekend and blow the recess part – without voting.
It is not clear which way the sides may go.
But what if there is no voting at all?
That’s causing trouble as the country races toward a June 1 debt ceiling deadline.
Chad Pergram currently serves as a senior congressional reporter for FOX News Channel (FNC). He joined the network in September 2007 and is based in Washington, DC
