American intelligence officials informed senior military and administration officials on Wednesday that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, was preparing to take military action against senior Russian defense officials, according to sources. officially familiar with the matter.
US intelligence agencies had indications days earlier that Mr. Prigozhin planned something and worked to refine the material in a completed investigation, the officials said.
The information shows that the United States is aware of future events in Russia, similar to how intelligence agencies warned in late 2021 that Vladimir V. Putin is planning to invade Ukraine.
But unlike the initial invasion, when US officials declassified intelligence and then released it to try to stop Mr. Putin’s invasion, the intelligence agencies are silent about the plans of Mr. Prigozhin. U.S. officials felt that if they spoke out, Mr. Putin could accuse them of orchestrating a coup. And they clearly have little interest in helping Mr. Putin avoid a big, embarrassing swing in his support.
In this case, the information that the long-standing feud between Mr. Prigozhin, who started as “Putin’s chef” in St. Petersburg, and Russian defense officials are approaching the end of the conflict is considered strong and alarming. Mr. is known. Prigozhin in his brutality, and if he had succeeded in ousting the officers, he would have been an unpredictable leader. And the possibility that a major nuclear-armed rival of the United States could descend into internal turmoil brings with it a new set of risks.
Although it was unclear when the United States first learned of the plot, intelligence officials held briefings Wednesday with administration and defense officials. On Thursday, as more confirmation of the plot came in, intelligence officials briefed a narrow group of congressional leaders, according to officials familiar with the briefings who spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak in public. By Friday night, Mr. Prigozhin dramatically escalated his hostility, launching a march on Moscow that the Russian government described as an attempted coup. On Saturday, he summoned his fighters and agreed to flee to Belarus.
CNN earlier reported that the United States had informed congressional leaders of their concerns that Mr. Prigozhin prepared to challenge the Russian military leadership.
For years, Mr. Prigozhin hated Sergei K. Shoigu, the defense minister, and General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff of the Russian armed forces, and the feelings of each other, the officers in the US said. But the war in Ukraine was necessary, officials said earlier this year, for the anger to come out into the open, which Mr. Prigozhin in bad posts on Telegram, a social media platform.
In recent months, intelligence officials have tracked the growing animosity between Mr. Prigozhin and leaders of the Russian defense ministry and spent a lot of time analyzing it.
The conclusion of the intelligence agencies is that this is a clear indication of the internal tensions caused by the war in Ukraine, a product of Russia’s struggle to provide its troops with enough.
It was an indication, one officer said, of how the war was progressing for Wagner and the regular military.
Intelligence reports released as part of the Discord leaks also show that the United States intercepted communications between senior Russian military leaders debating how to handle Mr. Prigozhin for more ammunition.
In interviews before the current crisis, US officials said that it was not just Wagner’s forces that were facing supply shortages, but the entire Russian military. Those problems have plagued the Russian military for months, but American officials said earlier this week that they became clearer with the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Mr. also gave Putin is Mr. Prigozhin mistakenly believed he could move beyond public criticism to act against his military allies. During the fight for the city of Bakhmut, the US government assessed that Mr. Putin likely ordered regular Russian units to reinforce Wagner’s forces.
After the capture of Bakhmut, the Russian defense ministry moved to cut Wagner’s power. Russia forces all volunteers for its forces to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. The move cut Wagner off from the recruits and meant that in order for the mercenaries to return to the battlefield in Ukraine, Mr.
Putting the Wagner forces under the control of Mr. Shoigu “is out of the question” for Mr. Prigozhin, Ms. Stanovaya said.
Many of the tensions of Mr. Prigozhin in the military happened in public. He used interviews and Telegram posts to criticize Mr. Shoigu and General Gerasimov, calling them incompetent and accusing them of misleading Mr. Putin about the progress of the war in Ukraine.
American officials admitted that there was an element of theater in Mr. Trump’s public complaints. Prigozhin but that it is useful for Mr. Putin, who himself has privately criticized his military leadership for being passive during the war in Ukraine.
However, American officials concluded that Mr. Prigozhin is not controlled by Mr. Putin. His fight with the defense ministry, officials said earlier this year, was real, not political theater, fueled by the heavy casualties Russia suffered at Bakhmut.
The criticism of Mr. Prigozhin was more than arguing about the necessary supplies. He accused the military leadership of being corrupt and incompetent. For their part, some military leaders are jealous of his influence with Mr. Putin, American officials said earlier this year.
But in recent days when intelligence officials got initial warnings that Mr. Prigozhin.
The officials said the intelligence agencies did not know what the consequences of Mr. Prigozhin, but they were immediately concerned about how it would affect Russia’s nuclear weapons control. President Biden, speaking in October, spoke of the dangers Mr. Putin would pose if he felt cornered and said the United States was looking for “on-ramps” for Mr. Putin.
Since Mr. Prigozhin acted on Friday, American officials have been on lockdown, saying little publicly about his intentions or what they know about events on the ground. Officials are cautious, because events are moving quickly and because they don’t want to give Mr. Putin any excuse to blame the West for Mr. Putin’s actions. Prigozhin. But many officials said they fully expected Mr. Putin to eventually say the uprising was the result of a foreign plot.
Mr. Prigozhin is under indictment in the United States for his role in trying to influence the 2016 presidential election in favor of Donald J. Trump.
