The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts near-normal activity levels during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1, 2023.
For the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA says there is a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of above-average activity, and a 30% chance of below average activity.
The organization expects to see anywhere between 12 and 17 named storms form in the Atlantic, and of these, five to nine are predicted to become hurricanes, of which one to four are predicted to become major hurricanes, ie category 3 or higher.
Of course, it only takes one major storm to make landfall to drive huge losses in the insurance and reinsurance industry, as seen in the devastating effects caused by Hurricane Ian last year – one of the costliest natural disasters. recorded disaster.
NOAA’s forecast follows Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers, who in April said they expected Atlantic hurricane season activity in 2023 to be slightly below average, but warned that the conflict signals between “a potentially strong El Niño. and an anomalously warm tropical and subtropical Atlantic”, creating greater uncertainty than normal.
CSU researchers forecast 13 named storms, six of which will reach hurricane strength, with two expected to become major hurricanes.
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) also released its forecast in April, predicting that activity in 2023 will be 25-30% below the 1991-2020 30-year norm, and nearly 20% below the long-term 1950-2022 norm. behavior.
The company expects to see two hurricanes, six typhoons, and 12 tropical storms.