Artificial intelligence already has a long track record in the field of weather forecasting, where it has helped prognosticators make faster, more accurate predictions for nearly three decades.
But now, AI has the potential to take the next step when it comes to predicting sun, rain, wind and snow by doing the job on its own, without using the various models that human forecasters rely on. for generations.
Hendrik Tolman, senior adviser for advanced modeling systems at the National Weather Service, told Fox News Digital that this possibility is on the horizon and is being actively explored.
“Companies like Nvidia and IBM have made a lot of progress in the last six months or 12 months in trying to see how they can use AI to do the same thing that our big computer models do, to provide a prediction for the future based on AI rather than going through a computer model,” Tolman said.
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“Or AI takes over as it has more models and gets a better idea of how to integrate all the data we have.
The National Weather Service’s forecast for May 10-11, 2023. The organization has been using AI for years and is currently experimenting with the upper limits of AI’s weather forecasting capacity. (Screenshot/Fox News Digital)
“It’s very new, that’s been the last year or so. There’s been a lot of progress on that.”
This is a new idea in a field that has benefited from AI relatively early. Tolman said AI was first used in 1995 to help forecasters understand data received from a set of satellites used to predict wind speed and surface temperature.
Since then, AI has been used by weather forecasters to absorb as much data as possible and use that information to make more accurate weather predictions, such as the chances of a storm developing based on current conditions. at the time. AI is also used to help tweak some of the existing weather models used when needed and even distill all the data into summaries that humans can read and understand.
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“Our forecasters are starting to use more and more AI tools to translate that into a simple message for the public that is useful and helps the public make the right decisions,” said Tolman.
But this work done by AI is largely focused on helping people make faster, more accurate predictions based on the many weather models that have been developed over decades. The big question, Tolman said, is whether AI can do all the work itself, without human-designed models.
Hendrik Tolman, senior adviser for advanced modeling systems at the National Weather Service.
“That’s really AI reaching beyond the core of the tools we have and starting to replace or augment some models,” he said. “Some of the tests we’re trying to do is to see to what degree AI can replace complete models.”
Tolman says it’s an open question whether AI is up to the task.
“Some of the tests we’re trying to do is to see to what degree AI can replace computer models,” he said. “We don’t know anywhere close to seeing if we can trust its reliability to do this.”
Tolman says, for example, that when ChatGPT is asked for a weather update, it spits out something that looks like a legitimate forecast.
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“But it’s not clear to me if the chatbot is doing this itself, or if they’re harvesting the information we’re putting through the models,” he said. “That is the question. … We are not scientifically mature enough to answer it.”
He said a related issue is whether AI can accurately predict extreme weather events.
In terms of helping people make better assessments under the various weather models currently in use, Tolman said using AI is a “no-brainer.”
“We’re using AI in operations now because it’s better than what we used before,” he said.
A tornado hits Pleasantville, Iowa, April 4, 2023. It’s an open question how well AI can predict some of the worst weather events. (Deanna Sutter Rood via AP)
Discovering the outer limits of AI’s ability to predict the weather will take time and more people. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which houses the National Weather Service, is hiring people with AI experience, and Tolman, who was born in the Netherlands and is now a US citizen, says that finding the right people with an AI background. was his first challenge.
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“The biggest problem we have with computer-based things today is that when I started my career 30 years ago, the one hot thing to do with computers was time,” he said. “Nowadays everybody wants to be in video gaming and stuff like that.
“We are having a hard time getting the next generation interested in our type of work compared to other computer work, and this is one of the reasons why we will be able to do more outreach and branding in the next few years.
“Before it was very easyto hire people in computer sciences for the time. Now we have to work for it.”
