The latest version of HurLoss by Applied Research Associate, Inc. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has been adopted again for the creation of insurance rates in Florida.
According to ARA, this latest version is also the first time the company has submitted a model with a current, or climate-conditional, view of hurricane risk, rather than a stationary or long-term one. historical perspective, and the first model accepted by the FCHLPM to account for climate change.
Frank Lavelle, ARA Principal Engineer, who has overseen the development and support of ARA’s hurricane model since 2002, commented, “This development recognizes the evolving nature of hurricane risk, driven by the changing -or environmental parameters, such as sea surface temperature and wind shear.”
ARA suggests that its unique approach makes this breakthrough in climate modeling possible, allowing direct input from leading Global Circulation Models (GCM).
Lavelle continued, “ARA’s engineering approach to disaster modeling is first-principles, physics-based. Our hurricane modeling always uses physically-based inputs, rather than relying solely on statistical modeling. or simple data acquisition.
The ARA stated that its approach to quantifying the effects of climate change on hurricane risk is to allow the hurricane model to enter predictions of future global temperatures and wind shear from the leading GCMs and provide event occurrence rates for any given time frame and carbon emission scenario modeled by a GCM.
Senior Engineer Lauren Mudd, ARA’s chief climate change expert on hurricane risk, said, “Environmental parameters are direct inputs to ARA’s unique, physically based hurricane risk model .
“Using this method, many environmental parameters can be included, as opposed to just one parameter such as sea surface temperature.”
The ARA procedure was approved after the final hearing for the model on Friday, June 2.
